The restaurant industry is no stranger to volatility—shifting consumer trends, rising labor costs, supply chain disruptions. But in recent months, one ingredient has become the poster child of inflation-driven headaches: eggs. Breakfast-first restaurants, in particular, have been hit the hardest, as egg prices surged to historic highs and sent ripple effects across menus, margins, and customer traffic.
Eggs aren’t just a staple—they’re foundational to morning menus. When their cost more than doubles overnight, it doesn’t just impact your bottom line. It impacts customer trust, value perception, and long-term loyalty.
A TOUGH BREAK FOR BREAKFAST CHAINS
According to federal and MarginEdge data, egg prices saw a staggering 31% month-over-month increase in February, topping the list of most inflated food items. Year-over-year, the price of eggs had ballooned nearly 59%—and at one point in early March, the national median retail price hit $8.69 per dozen, up from $3.39 just a year earlier.
This surge wasn’t just numbers on a spreadsheet—it translated directly to real decisions in real kitchens. Chains like Waffle House and Denny’s tacked on temporary surcharges per egg, while others, like Biscuitville and various independents, followed suit. While necessary, those price hikes didn’t go unnoticed by customers. Traffic took a hit, especially at breakfast-forward brands like Broken Yolk Cafe, Bob Evans, Huddle House, and Another Broken Egg Café.
SOFTENING PRICES BUT CAUTION AHEAD
There’s some good news: wholesale egg prices have started to drop—cut nearly in half since their February peak. The bird flu outbreak appears to be easing, demand has softened, and supply is recovering. But this doesn’t mean restaurants are in the clear just yet.
Retail prices are expected to lag behind wholesale trends due to existing inventory and varying strategies from distributors and grocery chains. On top of that, with Easter around the corner, egg demand could temporarily prop prices up again. And let’s not forget—another bird flu flare-up could send prices soaring once more.
In short: eggs are still unpredictable. And in this environment, breakfast restaurants need to be nimble, transparent, and smart about managing both costs and customer expectations.
WHAT RESTAURANTS CAN DO NOW
So, what’s the move? While you can’t control the egg market, you can control how you respond. Here are some tactics to consider:
- Transparency Over Surprise Charges – If you’ve added surcharges or adjusted pricing, be upfront. Use signage, menus, or social media to explain the “why” behind temporary increases. Customers are more understanding when they’re informed—not blindsided.
- Get Creative with Limited-Time Offers – Introduce promotional dishes that lean less heavily on eggs—or use them in smaller, smarter ways. Highlight savory hashes, pancakes, breakfast sandwiches with alternative proteins, or plant-forward brunch bowls. Position these as exciting seasonal specials, not cost-cutting maneuvers.
- Partner With Suppliers Strategically – Keep open lines of communication with your distributors. If wholesale prices are coming down, push for those savings to be passed along. Larger chains may have more leverage here, but independents can still negotiate, especially if buying groups or cooperatives are involved.
- Focus on Experience, Not Just Price – Even in tough times, people still go out to eat. But now more than ever, guests want to feel like they’re getting value. That doesn’t just mean cheaper eggs—it means great service, warm hospitality, and memorable moments that justify the bill.
- Watch the Numbers Daily – This is a moment to be vigilant. Monitor traffic patterns and food costs closely, adjust menu engineering as needed, and stay agile. Brands like First Watch and Silver Diner have managed to grow this year, thanks in part to a higher-income customer base and efficient operations. While not every brand can follow the same blueprint, data-driven decisions are your best weapon.
VIGOR’S VIEW
The egg crisis isn’t just about eggs—it’s about how restaurants weather the storm of supply chain shocks without losing their core customer base. While the worst of the “eggflation” may be behind us, the recovery will be uneven, and consumer sensitivity to pricing is still high, especially among lower-income diners.
Our advice? Stay nimble. Stay honest. And keep your guests at the center of your strategy. Eggs may be unpredictable, but how you respond doesn’t have to be.
Need help crafting a pricing strategy, running a smart promo, or reworking your breakfast menu? That’s what we’re here for.
Let’s make sure your restaurant stays sunny side up—even when the market isn’t.
